ZA Cricket

I understand why Australia is desperate to make Cameron Green a thing. At only 24 years old, he represents a cricketer they could possibly extract a decade’s worth of elite cricket from. His first-class numbers certainly indicate a lot of promise. In 32 domestic first-class games, he’s scored 2386 runs, with eight centuries at an average of 56.8. Chuck in the fact that he’s an elite fielder, and even his Test bowling, where he has 32 wickets at an average of 35.96 and you have the makings of a good cricketer. Where things fall apart, however, is the batting at Test level. As dominant as he’s been in Shield Cricket, often regarded as the highest level of domestic cricket in the world, he’s flattered to deceive in Test cricket. 1139 runs in 26 Tests at an average of 32 do not a top-order batsman make. And yet that’s exactly what Australia has tried to transform him into. His run at number vs the West Indies saw returns of 14, 8, and 42 in his three innings, so 64 runs at an average of 21. Not good, especially considering the fact that he probably could have been out like half a dozen times in his average-lifting 42.

And yet, it is extremely likely that Australia will continue to invest in him because they see something in him. Specifically, they see the next Jacques Kallis. Here off-spinner, Nathan Lyon discusses his potential:

“If you look at Greeny, obviously have had the challenge of bowling to him in Shield cricket. Him batting at No.4 he’s given me a lot of headaches. I have actually really enjoyed seeing him batting at four. I feel like he could be the next Jacques Kallis of international cricket. Invest some time into him at No.4.”

High praise indeed coming from a guy who, with over 500 Test wickets, has seen it all. He’s seen it all, and still he thinks that Cameron Green is good enough to move Australia’s Best Since Bradman, Steve Smith from his preferred #4, where he’s scored 5966 runs in 67 Tests at an average of 61.5. Ironically, only Jacques Kallis has a higher average, at 61.86.

Given the level of cricket Australia are anticipating from Cameron Green, it’s only fair to compare him to the man he is supposed to be to see if he’s worth the risk. Now being fair, I think it should be obvious that it’s highly unlikely that Cameron Green is going to be the next Jacques Kallis. That’s nothing against him, but Kallis is arguably the greatest cricketer of all time, with 25 000 international runs and nearly 600 international wickets. Betting on Cameron Green not to be that good is a safe bet. But I thought it would be interesting to compare where a 25-year-old Jacques Kallis was statistically to see how far off Green is.

Immediately, you realise that he’s actually not that far off. He’s not super close, but there’s  something there. Any time you have someone who is nearly average with both bat and ball, you have a player that allows you to be very versatile with your squad. A closer look, however, reveals that Kallis was a rising prospect at this point in time, with his numbers on an upward trend. Having had a slow start in Test cricket, Kallis was averaging 58.5 with the bat from 1999 through to October 16, 2000. He’d also taken 34 wickets in 17 Tests at an average of 26.66. So by the age of 25, Kallis was the best all-rounder in the world. Well, on form anyway. He would not officially be the #1 all-rounder in the World for another year. But still, at 25 years of age, Kallis had broken into the top 10 batting ratings and was flirting with the top 20 in the bowling ratings. Green has not shown the same upward trend. Having shown some evidence of competence in 2022, where he averaged 39.84 with the bat, and took his first five-wicket haul, he seemed to have officially taken the next step when he scored his first Test century, in India. He’s unfortunately not kicked on. He averaged 29.88 last year and lost his job to Mitchell Marsh. Australia recalled him for the Windies series, as they seek to back his natural talent, but early returns have not been promising. Having peaked at #26 in the batting rankings, following his century vs India, he’s currently languishing at 45 with the bat, in other words, he’s one of the worst regular specialist batsmen in the world at the moment. Combined with the lack of penetration with the ball, and he’s yet to break the all-rounder top 10. To not even be top ten is incredible because there aren’t even that many all-rounders in Test cricket. For evidence of this Joe Root is currently the fifth-best all-rounder in the world, according to the ICC, and Root has fewer wickets in 135 Tests, than Kallis had in 39!

All this to say, at this point in time, Cameron Green is 100% not on pace to be the next Jacques Kallis. He’s probably not even on pace to be the next Andrew Flintoff. And I mean that with all respect to Flintoff, as he is a one-time ICC Cricketer of the Year. At the moment, he’s the kingpin of maybe the most fragile Australian batting line-up in recent memory. Australia has bet big on him, and he’s going to have to start repaying, and repaying quickly.