The race for the World Test Championship (WTC) Final is heating up, with South Africa, India, and Australia all vying for a spot at Lord’s in June 2025. As the WTC enters its final months, these three teams hold the strongest chances of making the final, while Sri Lanka has an outside shot. Here’s a detailed breakdown of each team’s path to qualification.
What is the World Test Championship?
The WTC was introduced in 2019 to bring more context and competitiveness to Test cricket. Over a two-year cycle, the nine top-ranked Test nations play bilateral series, earning points for each match result:
- Win: 12 points
- Draw: 4 points
- Tie: 6 points
The percentage of points won determines a team’s ranking, ensuring fairness since teams don’t play the same number of matches. At the end of the cycle, the top two teams face off in the final to crown the Test cricket world champions.
With South Africa, India, and Australia currently occupying the top three spots, the upcoming months are crucial in determining who will make it to Lord’s.
South Africa’s Scenarios
South Africa sits at the top of the standings with 63.33% points and has two matches left against Pakistan. Their fate is largely in their hands, but their qualification scenarios depend on the series result.
| Result vs Pakistan | % Points (PCT) | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 Win | 69.44% | Guaranteed qualification for the WTC Final. |
| 1-0 Win | 63.89% | Guaranteed qualification for the WTC Final. |
| 1-1 Draw | 61.11% | Guaranteed qualification for the WTC Final. |
| 0-1 Loss | 55.56% | Relies on India losing 3-2 or worse to Australia or Australia failing to win vs SL. |
| 0-2 Loss | 52.78% | Relies on very specific results, including India or Australia winning 4-1 AND SL-AUS ending in a draw. |
South Africa is guaranteed a spot if they win or draw the series. However, a 1-0 or 2-0 loss could put their qualification in jeopardy, leaving them reliant on other results.
India’s Scenarios
India, currently third with 57.29% points, has three matches left in their series against Australia. Their qualification depends heavily on the outcome of this series.
| Result vs Australia | % Points (PCT) | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 Win | 64.04% | Guaranteed qualification for the WTC Final. |
| 3-1 Win | 60.53% | Guaranteed qualification for the WTC Final. |
| 3-2 Win | 58.77% | Relies on South Africa losing 2-0 to Pakistan and/or Australia failing to win vs SL. |
| 2-2 Draw | 55.26% | Relies on South Africa losing 2-0 to Pakistan and/or Australia losing 2-0 to SL. |
India’s path is straightforward if they win the series 3-1 or better. A closer result would leave them reliant on results from South Africa and Sri Lanka.
Australia’s Scenarios
Australia is in second place with 60.71% points and has five matches remaining—three against India and two against Sri Lanka. Their multiple matches give them flexibility, but their qualification scenarios are tied to strong results.
| Result vs India | Result vs SL | % Points (PCT) | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4-1 Win | Irrelevant | 71.05% | Guaranteed qualification for the WTC Final. |
| 3-1 Win | Irrelevant | 67.54% | Guaranteed qualification for the WTC Final. |
| 3-2 Win | Irrelevant | 65.79% | Guaranteed qualification for the WTC Final. |
| 2-2 Draw | 1-1 Draw | 57.02% | Relies on South Africa losing to Pakistan or India not winning big. |
| 3-2 Loss | 2-0 Win | 60.53% | Relies on South Africa losing to Pakistan. |
| 4-1 Loss | 2-0 Win | 55.26% | Relies on South Africa losing 2-0 to Pakistan. |
Australia’s best path is to win three or more matches against India. However, even with a series loss to India, they could still qualify if they perform strongly in Sri Lanka.
Sri Lanka’s Slim Chance
Sri Lanka, currently at 45.45% points, has a very narrow path to qualification. They must beat Australia 2-0 in their upcoming series and rely on South Africa being whitewashed by Pakistan. Any other results will eliminate them from contention.
Conclusion
The race for the World Test Championship Final is incredibly tight. South Africa holds the advantage, but India and Australia remain strong contenders. Sri Lanka’s path is unlikely but mathematically possible. With key series on the horizon, every match will be critical in deciding who makes it to Lord’s.
Stay tuned for more updates as the race unfolds!
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